Postmatch editorial
Lorient flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Rennes 0-2 Lorient. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Pablo Pagis scored 77' for Lorient.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rennes led Total shots 22-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Rennes also shaded Possession 69%-31%.
Before kickoff, our model made Rennes the likeliest result at 48.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rennes at 56.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.98 against a fair line of 1.91. That translated to an edge of 3.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Rennes
48.5%
Market result
Rennes
56.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
RennesRennes
Lorient
22
6
Possession
RennesRennes
Lorient
69%
31%
Corners
RennesRennes
Lorient
9
3
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
1.98
Fair odd
1.91
Edge
3.7%
Stake
0.90u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.