Postmatch editorial

Real Sociedad turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Mikel Oyarzabal put the first mark on the match 24', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Osasuna led Corners 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Sociedad also shaded Shots on target 6-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Real Sociedad the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Sociedad at 51.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Real Sociedad

48.0%

Hit

Market result

Real Sociedad

51.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Osasuna

Real Sociedad

Osasuna

3

5

Shots on target

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Osasuna

6

5

Total shots

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Osasuna

14

13

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.