Postmatch editorial

Getafe flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Real Sociedad 0-1 Getafe. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Jon Gorrotxategi put the first mark on the match 29', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Real Sociedad led Shots on target 4-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Sociedad also shaded Total shots 13-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Real Sociedad the likeliest result at 50.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Sociedad at 44.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 5.22 against a fair line of 4.81. That translated to an edge of 8.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Real Sociedad

50.1%

Miss

Market result

Real Sociedad

44.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Getafe

4

0

Total shots

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Getafe

13

5

Possession

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Getafe

67%

33%

Model edge

2

Cloudbet

Market odd

5.22

Fair odd

4.81

Edge

8.5%

Stake

0.48u

That ticket matched the final outcome.