Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Deportivo Alavés

The final score was Real Oviedo 0-1 Deportivo Alavés. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Toni Martínez put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Deportivo Alavés led Shots on target 0-1. Real Oviedo also shaded Possession 70%-30%.

Before kickoff, our model made Real Oviedo the likeliest result at 44.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Deportivo Alavés at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Coral. The market was offering 2.30 against a fair line of 2.21. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Real Oviedo

44.3%

Miss

Market result

Deportivo Alavés

48.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Deportivo Alavés

Real Oviedo

Deportivo Alavés

0

1

Possession

Real Oviedo

Real Oviedo

Deportivo Alavés

70%

30%

Corners

Real Oviedo

Real Oviedo

Deportivo Alavés

5

2

Model edge

2

Coral

Market odd

2.30

Fair odd

2.21

Edge

4.1%

Stake

0.87u

That ticket matched the final outcome.