Real Madrid
Getafe won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Getafe
Postmatch editorial
Getafe flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Real Madrid 0-1 Getafe. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Martín Satriano put the first mark on the match 39', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Real Madrid led Shots on target 7-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Madrid also shaded Possession 77%-23%.
Before kickoff, our model made Real Madrid the likeliest result at 73.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Madrid at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Real Madrid
73.1%
Market result
Real Madrid
71.4%
BTTS
No
55.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Real MadridReal Madrid
Getafe
7
3
Possession
Real MadridReal Madrid
Getafe
77%
23%
Corners
Real MadridReal Madrid
Getafe
10
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.