Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Real Betis 1-1 Celta de Vigo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Ferran Jutglà put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Real Betis led Total shots 19-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Betis also shaded Shots on target 6-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Real Betis the likeliest result at 41.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Betis at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.23 against a fair line of 2.14. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Real Betis

41.2%

Miss

Market result

Real Betis

48.8%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Real Betis

Real Betis

Celta de Vigo

19

7

Shots on target

Real Betis

Real Betis

Celta de Vigo

6

3

Corners

Celta de Vigo

Real Betis

Celta de Vigo

3

4

Model edge

1

Mansionbet

Market odd

2.23

Fair odd

2.14

Edge

4.2%

Stake

0.80u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.