Postmatch editorial

Carlisle United upset the pre-match prices

The final score was Reading 2-3 Carlisle United after penalties. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Reading struck first through Lewis Wing  32', but Carlisle United recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Reading led Corners 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Reading also shaded Possession 57%-43%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Reading the favourite at 64.7% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Reading

64.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Reading

Reading

Carlisle United

7

2

Possession

Reading

Reading

Carlisle United

57%

43%

Shots on target

Carlisle United

Reading

Carlisle United

6

7