Postmatch editorial

RB Leipzig made the numbers look right

The final score was RB Leipzig 2-1 St. Pauli. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Xaver Schlager put the first mark on the match 45', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: RB Leipzig led Possession 70%-30%. RB Leipzig also shaded Shots on target 5-3.

Before kickoff, our model made RB Leipzig the likeliest result at 68.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 78.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 1.38 against a fair line of 1.36. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

RB Leipzig

68.3%

Hit

Market result

RB Leipzig

78.1%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

St. Pauli

70%

30%

Shots on target

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

St. Pauli

5

3

Total shots

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

St. Pauli

13

8

Model edge

1

Cloudbet

Market odd

1.38

Fair odd

1.36

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.53u

That ticket matched the final outcome.