Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
RB Leipzig struck first through Conrad Harder 40', but FSV Mainz 05 recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: RB Leipzig led Possession 70%-30%, even though the scoreboard went another way. RB Leipzig also shaded Total shots 15-11.
Before kickoff, our model made RB Leipzig the likeliest result at 55.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.66 against a fair line of 1.62. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
RB Leipzig
55.7%
Market result
RB Leipzig
64.5%
BTTS
Yes
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
70%
30%
Total shots
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
15
11
Corners
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
5
4
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.66
Fair odd
1.62
Edge
2.5%
Stake
1.12u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.