Postmatch editorial

FC Bayern München made the numbers look right

The final score was RB Leipzig 1-5 FC Bayern München. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

RB Leipzig struck first through Rômulo 20', but FC Bayern München recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 4-12. FC Bayern München also shaded Corners 5-9.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 55.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 58.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (64.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.77 against a fair line of 1.72. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

55.3%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

58.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

64.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Bayern München

RB Leipzig

FC Bayern München

4

12

Corners

FC Bayern München

RB Leipzig

FC Bayern München

5

9

Possession

FC Bayern München

RB Leipzig

FC Bayern München

42%

58%

Model edge

2

Interwetten

Market odd

1.77

Fair odd

1.72

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.04u

That ticket matched the final outcome.