Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Alexandre Zurawski 90+9', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rayo Vallecano led Total shots 24-13, even though the scoreboard went another way. Rayo Vallecano also shaded Possession 58%-42%.

Before kickoff, our model made Rayo Vallecano the likeliest result at 44.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rayo Vallecano at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 2.88 against a fair line of 2.73. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Rayo Vallecano

44.4%

Miss

Market result

Rayo Vallecano

38.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad

24

13

Possession

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad

58%

42%

Corners

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad

6

4

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

2.88

Fair odd

2.73

Edge

5.5%

Stake

0.64u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.