Rayo Vallecano
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Girona
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Cristhian Stuani 90', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rayo Vallecano led Total shots 18-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Rayo Vallecano also shaded Corners 9-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Rayo Vallecano the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rayo Vallecano at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Rayo Vallecano
48.0%
Market result
Rayo Vallecano
44.4%
BTTS
No
54.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Girona
18
9
Corners
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Girona
9
5
Possession
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Girona
59%
41%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.