Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Espanyol
Postmatch editorial
Rayo Vallecano made the numbers look right
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Espanyol struck first through Kike García 74', but Rayo Vallecano recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Rayo Vallecano led Shots on target 6-4. Rayo Vallecano also shaded Total shots 17-15.
Before kickoff, our model made Rayo Vallecano the likeliest result at 53.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rayo Vallecano at 47.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 4.28 against a fair line of 3.98. That translated to an edge of 7.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Rayo Vallecano
53.7%
Market result
Rayo Vallecano
47.1%
BTTS
No
56.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Espanyol
6
4
Total shots
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Espanyol
17
15
Corners
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Espanyol
6
5
Model edge
2
Cloudbet
Market odd
4.28
Fair odd
3.98
Edge
7.5%
Stake
0.48u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.