Rayo Vallecano
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Athletic Club
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Jorge de Frutos put the first mark on the match 35', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Rayo Vallecano led Shots on target 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Rayo Vallecano also shaded Total shots 15-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Rayo Vallecano the likeliest result at 42.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Rayo Vallecano at 40.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Rayo Vallecano
42.6%
Market result
Rayo Vallecano
40.4%
BTTS
No
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
7
2
Total shots
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
15
8
Corners
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
5
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.