Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Qatar

The final score was Qatar 2-1 United Arab Emirates. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Boualem Khoukhi put the first mark on the match 49', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: United Arab Emirates led Total shots 7-15, even though the scoreboard went another way. United Arab Emirates also shaded Corners 1-2.

Before kickoff, our model made United Arab Emirates the likeliest result at 47.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Qatar at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.80 against a fair line of 2.66. That translated to an edge of 5.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

United Arab Emirates

47.3%

Miss

Market result

Qatar

38.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

7

15

Corners

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

1

2

Shots on target

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

3

4

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

2.80

Fair odd

2.66

Edge

5.3%

Stake

0.65u

That ticket matched the final outcome.