Postmatch editorial

The pre-match tension never quite broke

The final score was Qatar 1-1 Switzerland. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Miro Muheim 90+4', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Switzerland led Total shots 6-26, even though the scoreboard went another way. Switzerland also shaded Shots on target 3-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Switzerland the likeliest result at 56.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Switzerland at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Switzerland

56.4%

Miss

Market result

Switzerland

84.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

57.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Switzerland

Qatar

Switzerland

6

26

Shots on target

Switzerland

Qatar

Switzerland

3

7

Corners

Switzerland

Qatar

Switzerland

3

10

Model edge

2

Interwetten

Market odd

1.25

Fair odd

1.24

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.00u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.