Postmatch editorial
Puerto Rico made the numbers look right
The final score was Puerto Rico 2-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Steven Echeverria scored 77' for Puerto Rico.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: St. Vincent and the Grenadines led Corners 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Puerto Rico also shaded Shots on target 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Puerto Rico the likeliest result at 58.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Puerto Rico at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 11.00 against a fair line of 9.76. That translated to an edge of 12.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Puerto Rico
58.6%
Market result
Puerto Rico
73.5%
BTTS
Yes
62.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
St. Vincent and the GrenadinesPuerto Rico
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
3
5
Shots on target
Puerto RicoPuerto Rico
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
6
5
Possession
Puerto RicoPuerto Rico
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
54%
46%
Model edge
2
Williamhill
Market odd
11.00
Fair odd
9.76
Edge
12.7%
Stake
0.29u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.