Portugal
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Hungary
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Portugal 2-2 Hungary. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Dominik Szoboszlai 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Portugal led Possession 65%-35%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Portugal also shaded Shots on target 8-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Portugal the likeliest result at 67.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Portugal at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.28 against a fair line of 1.26. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Portugal
67.1%
Market result
Portugal
82.0%
BTTS
No
52.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
PortugalPortugal
Hungary
65%
35%
Shots on target
PortugalPortugal
Hungary
8
7
Total shots
PortugalPortugal
Hungary
20
17
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.28
Fair odd
1.26
Edge
1.6%
Stake
1.82u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.