Poland
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Netherlands
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Poland 1-1 Netherlands. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Jakub Kamiński put the first mark on the match 43', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Poland led Shots on target 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Poland also shaded Total shots 12-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Netherlands the likeliest result at 54.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Netherlands at 55.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.1%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 5.01 against a fair line of 4.62. That translated to an edge of 8.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Netherlands
54.7%
Market result
Netherlands
55.7%
BTTS
Yes
57.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
PolandPoland
Netherlands
5
3
Total shots
PolandPoland
Netherlands
12
8
Possession
NetherlandsPoland
Netherlands
40%
60%
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
5.01
Fair odd
4.62
Edge
8.4%
Stake
0.83u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.