Postmatch editorial

Poland made the numbers look right

The final score was Poland 2-1 Albania. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Albania struck first through Arbër Hoxha 42', but Poland recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Poland led Shots on target 4-2. Poland also shaded Total shots 15-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Poland the likeliest result at 45.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Poland at 61.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Poland

45.6%

Hit

Market result

Poland

61.0%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Poland

Poland

Albania

4

2

Total shots

Poland

Poland

Albania

15

8

Corners

Poland

Poland

Albania

6

2

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.