Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Sassuolo
The final score was Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Domenico Berardi put the first mark on the match 25', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sassuolo led Corners 2-5. Sassuolo also shaded Total shots 15-21.
Before kickoff, our model made Pisa the likeliest result at 37.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sassuolo at 40.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Pisa
37.6%
Market result
Sassuolo
40.3%
BTTS
No
51.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
SassuoloPisa
Sassuolo
2
5
Total shots
SassuoloPisa
Sassuolo
15
21
Shots on target
PisaPisa
Sassuolo
6
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.