Postmatch editorial

Pisa found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Pisa 3-1 Cagliari. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Stefano Moreo put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cagliari led Corners 1-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cagliari also shaded Possession 28%-72%.

Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 36.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Pisa at 39.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.1%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cagliari

36.7%

Miss

Market result

Pisa

39.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

53.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Cagliari

Pisa

Cagliari

1

5

Possession

Cagliari

Pisa

Cagliari

28%

72%

Shots on target

Pisa

Pisa

Cagliari

6

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.