Postmatch editorial

Bologna made the numbers look right

The final score was Pisa 0-1 Bologna. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Jens Odgaard scored 90' for Bologna.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Pisa led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Pisa also shaded Corners 7-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 59.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 52.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

59.0%

Hit

Market result

Bologna

52.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Pisa

Pisa

Bologna

3

1

Corners

Pisa

Pisa

Bologna

7

4

Possession

Bologna

Pisa

Bologna

41%

59%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.