Peru
Paraguay won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Paraguay
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Peru 0-1 Paraguay. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when MatÃas Galarza Fonda scored 78' for Paraguay.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Paraguay led Shots on target 3-5. Peru also shaded Total shots 12-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Peru the likeliest result at 48.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Peru at 37.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (66.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Bet365. The market was offering 3.20 against a fair line of 3.02. That translated to an edge of 6.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Peru
48.2%
Market result
Peru
37.5%
BTTS
No
66.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ParaguayPeru
Paraguay
3
5
Total shots
PeruPeru
Paraguay
12
7
Possession
PeruPeru
Paraguay
55%
45%
Model edge
X
Bet365
Market odd
3.20
Fair odd
3.02
Edge
6.0%
Stake
0.60u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.