Peru
Game ended in draw.
0 - 0
FT
Ecuador
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Peru 0-0 Ecuador. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Neither Peru nor Ecuador found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Peru led Corners 2-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Peru also shaded Shots on target 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Peru the likeliest result at 41.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ecuador at 39.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.1%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 9.30 against a fair line of 8.32. That translated to an edge of 11.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Peru
41.9%
Market result
Ecuador
39.8%
BTTS
No
63.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
PeruPeru
Ecuador
2
0
Shots on target
PeruPeru
Ecuador
5
3
Total shots
PeruPeru
Ecuador
13
10
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
9.30
Fair odd
8.32
Edge
11.8%
Stake
0.47u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.