Postmatch editorial

The script held and Peru delivered it

The final score was Peru 3-1 Bolivia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Edison Flores scored 82' for Peru.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Peru led Shots on target 7-5. Bolivia also shaded Total shots 12-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Peru the likeliest result at 70.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Peru at 67.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (67.5%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Peru

70.2%

Hit

Market result

Peru

67.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

67.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Peru

Peru

Bolivia

7

5

Total shots

Bolivia

Peru

Bolivia

12

15

Corners

Bolivia

Peru

Bolivia

3

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.