Postmatch editorial
Parma flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Parma 1-0 Fiorentina. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Oliver Sørensen put the first mark on the match 48', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Fiorentina led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Fiorentina also shaded Total shots 13-23.
Before kickoff, our model made Fiorentina the likeliest result at 46.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fiorentina at 46.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.38 against a fair line of 2.28. That translated to an edge of 4.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Fiorentina
46.7%
Market result
Fiorentina
46.8%
BTTS
No
51.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FiorentinaParma
Fiorentina
2
4
Total shots
FiorentinaParma
Fiorentina
13
23
Possession
FiorentinaParma
Fiorentina
42%
58%
Model edge
2
Betsson
Market odd
2.38
Fair odd
2.28
Edge
4.4%
Stake
0.77u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.