Postmatch editorial

Cremonese flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Parma 0-2 Cremonese. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Youssef Maleh put the first mark on the match 54', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cremonese led Shots on target 1-4. Parma also shaded Corners 3-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Parma the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Parma at 44.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Parma

45.4%

Miss

Market result

Parma

44.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cremonese

Parma

Cremonese

1

4

Corners

Parma

Parma

Cremonese

3

1

Total shots

Parma

Parma

Cremonese

8

7

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.