Parma
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Cagliari
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was Parma 1-1 Cagliari. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Gaetano Oristanio 83', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Parma led Total shots 18-11, even though the scoreboard went another way. Parma also shaded Corners 6-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Parma the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Parma at 44.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Parma
40.9%
Market result
Parma
44.8%
BTTS
No
51.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
ParmaParma
Cagliari
18
11
Corners
ParmaParma
Cagliari
6
3
Shots on target
CagliariParma
Cagliari
4
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.