Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Paris 0-3 Toulouse. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Djibril Sidibé put the first mark on the match 19', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Toulouse led Shots on target 2-4. Paris also shaded Possession 65%-35%.
Before kickoff, our model made Paris the likeliest result at 48.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paris
48.3%
Market result
Paris
37.0%
BTTS
Yes
55.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ToulouseParis
Toulouse
2
4
Possession
ParisParis
Toulouse
65%
35%
Corners
ParisParis
Toulouse
7
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.