Postmatch editorial

Paris flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Paris 2-1 Paris Saint Germain. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Paris Saint Germain struck first through Bradley Barcola 50', but Paris recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Paris led Shots on target 9-2. Paris also shaded Total shots 17-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Paris Saint Germain the likeliest result at 60.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris Saint Germain at 68.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.62 against a fair line of 1.58. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Paris Saint Germain

60.9%

Miss

Market result

Paris Saint Germain

68.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

58.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Paris

Paris

Paris Saint Germain

9

2

Total shots

Paris

Paris

Paris Saint Germain

17

9

Possession

Paris Saint Germain

Paris

Paris Saint Germain

37%

63%

Model edge

2

Dafabet

Market odd

1.62

Fair odd

1.58

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.20u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.