Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Toulouse
Postmatch editorial
Paris Saint Germain turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Gonçalo Ramos scored 90+2' for Paris Saint Germain.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Paris Saint Germain led Shots on target 7-1. Paris Saint Germain also shaded Total shots 17-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Paris Saint Germain the likeliest result at 60.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris Saint Germain at 78.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paris Saint Germain
60.2%
Market result
Paris Saint Germain
78.7%
BTTS
Yes
53.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Toulouse
7
1
Total shots
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Toulouse
17
5
Possession
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Toulouse
72%
28%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.