Paris Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Olympique Lyonnais
Postmatch editorial
Olympique Lyonnais flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Endrick put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Paris Saint Germain led Total shots 23-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Paris Saint Germain also shaded Possession 77%-23%.
Before kickoff, our model made Paris Saint Germain the likeliest result at 59.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris Saint Germain at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paris Saint Germain
59.6%
Market result
Paris Saint Germain
75.2%
BTTS
Yes
51.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
23
6
Possession
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
77%
23%
Corners
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
13
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.