Paris Saint Germain
Monaco won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
Monaco
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Maghnes Akliouche put the first mark on the match 27', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Paris Saint Germain led Possession 72%-28%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Paris Saint Germain also shaded Total shots 20-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Paris Saint Germain the likeliest result at 66.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris Saint Germain at 72.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paris Saint Germain
66.8%
Market result
Paris Saint Germain
72.2%
BTTS
No
51.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Monaco
72%
28%
Total shots
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Monaco
20
11
Corners
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Monaco
7
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.