Paris Saint Germain
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Lorient
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Lorient. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Aiyegun Tosin 78', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Paris Saint Germain led Total shots 24-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Paris Saint Germain also shaded Shots on target 6-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Paris Saint Germain the likeliest result at 66.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paris Saint Germain at 73.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Cloudbet. The market was offering 7.16 against a fair line of 6.49. That translated to an edge of 10.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paris Saint Germain
66.8%
Market result
Paris Saint Germain
73.0%
BTTS
Yes
51.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Lorient
24
5
Shots on target
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Lorient
6
3
Corners
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Lorient
12
2
Model edge
X
Cloudbet
Market odd
7.16
Fair odd
6.49
Edge
10.3%
Stake
0.35u
That ticket matched the final outcome.