Paraguay
Paraguay won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Uruguay
Postmatch editorial
Paraguay settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Paraguay 2-0 Uruguay. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Julio Enciso scored 81' for Paraguay.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Paraguay led Shots on target 5-1. Paraguay also shaded Total shots 12-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Paraguay the likeliest result at 36.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Draw at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Paraguay
36.0%
Market result
Draw
38.5%
BTTS
No
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ParaguayParaguay
Uruguay
5
1
Total shots
ParaguayParaguay
Uruguay
12
5
Possession
UruguayParaguay
Uruguay
29%
71%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.