Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Paraguay nor Ecuador found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Paraguay led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Paraguay also shaded Corners 6-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Paraguay the likeliest result at 42.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Paraguay at 41.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.4%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Paraguay

42.6%

Miss

Market result

Paraguay

41.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

60.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Paraguay

Paraguay

Ecuador

3

1

Corners

Paraguay

Paraguay

Ecuador

6

1

Possession

Ecuador

Paraguay

Ecuador

38%

62%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.