Panama
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Suriname
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Panama 1-1 Suriname. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Ismael Díaz 90+6', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Panama led Total shots 28-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Panama also shaded Shots on target 8-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 51.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 69.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 188bet. The market was offering 4.85 against a fair line of 4.48. That translated to an edge of 8.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Panama
51.0%
Market result
Panama
69.0%
BTTS
No
50.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
PanamaPanama
Suriname
28
8
Shots on target
PanamaPanama
Suriname
8
4
Possession
PanamaPanama
Suriname
68%
32%
Model edge
X
188bet
Market odd
4.85
Fair odd
4.48
Edge
8.3%
Stake
0.44u
That ticket matched the final outcome.