Postmatch editorial

Panama turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Panama 3-0 Nicaragua. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Éric Davis scored 90+3' for Panama.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Panama led Shots on target 6-1. Panama also shaded Total shots 12-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 1.39 against a fair line of 1.37. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Panama

43.6%

Hit

Market result

Panama

75.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Panama

Panama

Nicaragua

6

1

Total shots

Panama

Panama

Nicaragua

12

7

Possession

Panama

Panama

Nicaragua

54%

46%

Model edge

1

Betsson

Market odd

1.39

Fair odd

1.37

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.53u

That ticket matched the final outcome.