Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Panama

The final score was Panama 1-0 Canada. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Gabriel Torres put the first mark on the match 49', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Panama led Shots on target 3-2. Panama also shaded Corners 7-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 38.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Canada at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 5.20 against a fair line of 4.79. That translated to an edge of 8.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Panama

38.4%

Hit

Market result

Canada

51.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Panama

Panama

Canada

3

2

Corners

Panama

Panama

Canada

7

3

Possession

Panama

Panama

Canada

57%

43%

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

5.20

Fair odd

4.79

Edge

8.6%

Stake

0.44u

That ticket matched the final outcome.