Postmatch editorial
Panama found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Panama 1-0 Barbados. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jair Catuy scored 82' for Panama.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Panama led Possession 77%-23%. Panama also shaded Shots on target 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Barbados the likeliest result at 51.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Nitrogen Sports. The market was offering 1.16 against a fair line of 1.15. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Barbados
51.2%
Market result
Panama
89.3%
BTTS
Yes
56.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
PanamaPanama
Barbados
77%
23%
Shots on target
PanamaPanama
Barbados
5
3
Corners
PanamaPanama
Barbados
6
3
Model edge
1
Nitrogen Sports
Market odd
1.16
Fair odd
1.15
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.59u
That ticket matched the final outcome.