Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Raúl García scored 90' for Osasuna.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Real Madrid led Shots on target 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Madrid also shaded Corners 3-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Real Madrid the likeliest result at 55.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Madrid at 58.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Melbet. The market was offering 1.81 against a fair line of 1.76. That translated to an edge of 2.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Real Madrid

55.5%

Miss

Market result

Real Madrid

58.8%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

58.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Real Madrid

Osasuna

Real Madrid

2

5

Corners

Real Madrid

Osasuna

Real Madrid

3

7

Possession

Real Madrid

Osasuna

Real Madrid

39%

61%

Model edge

2

Melbet

Market odd

1.81

Fair odd

1.76

Edge

2.8%

Stake

1.00u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.