Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Abde Ezzalzouli put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Osasuna led Corners 6-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Osasuna also shaded Total shots 12-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Osasuna the likeliest result at 41.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Osasuna at 43.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.5%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Osasuna

41.8%

Miss

Market result

Osasuna

43.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Osasuna

Osasuna

Real Betis

6

3

Total shots

Osasuna

Osasuna

Real Betis

12

8

Shots on target

Osasuna

Osasuna

Real Betis

4

3

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.