Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Ante Budimir 90+4', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Osasuna led Corners 8-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Osasuna also shaded Total shots 22-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Osasuna the likeliest result at 59.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Osasuna at 52.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.1%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Osasuna

59.8%

Miss

Market result

Osasuna

52.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

56.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Osasuna

Osasuna

Mallorca

8

0

Total shots

Osasuna

Osasuna

Mallorca

22

8

Shots on target

Osasuna

Osasuna

Mallorca

5

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.