Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Carlos Romero put the first mark on the match 27', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Osasuna led Shots on target 8-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Osasuna also shaded Total shots 24-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Osasuna the likeliest result at 49.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Osasuna at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Cloudbet. The market was offering 3.41 against a fair line of 3.21. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Osasuna

49.0%

Miss

Market result

Osasuna

46.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Osasuna

Osasuna

Espanyol

8

3

Total shots

Osasuna

Osasuna

Espanyol

24

7

Corners

Osasuna

Osasuna

Espanyol

9

2

Model edge

X

Cloudbet

Market odd

3.41

Fair odd

3.21

Edge

6.2%

Stake

0.56u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.