Postmatch editorial
The script held and Osasuna delivered it
The final score was Osasuna 3-0 Deportivo Alavés. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Raúl García scored 90+3' for Osasuna.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Osasuna led Corners 9-0. Osasuna also shaded Shots on target 7-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Osasuna the likeliest result at 41.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Osasuna at 44.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Osasuna
41.5%
Market result
Osasuna
44.7%
BTTS
Yes
50.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
OsasunaOsasuna
Deportivo Alavés
9
0
Shots on target
OsasunaOsasuna
Deportivo Alavés
7
3
Total shots
OsasunaOsasuna
Deportivo Alavés
16
7
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.