Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Olympique Marseille 1-1 Nice. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Elye Wahi 88', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Olympique Marseille led Shots on target 6-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Marseille also shaded Total shots 24-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Marseille the likeliest result at 62.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Marseille at 58.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.80 against a fair line of 1.75. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Olympique Marseille

62.8%

Miss

Market result

Olympique Marseille

58.8%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Olympique Marseille

Olympique Marseille

Nice

6

2

Total shots

Olympique Marseille

Olympique Marseille

Nice

24

5

Corners

Olympique Marseille

Olympique Marseille

Nice

7

1

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

1.80

Fair odd

1.75

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.04u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.