Postmatch editorial

Olympique Lyonnais made the numbers look right

The final score was Olympique Lyonnais 2-0 Nice. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Corentin Tolisso put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nice led Shots on target 2-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Lyonnais also shaded Corners 8-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Lyonnais the likeliest result at 65.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Lyonnais at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 1.94 against a fair line of 1.88. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Olympique Lyonnais

65.8%

Hit

Market result

Olympique Lyonnais

54.6%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Nice

Olympique Lyonnais

Nice

2

3

Corners

Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

Nice

8

5

Possession

Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

Nice

57%

43%

Model edge

1

Cloudbet

Market odd

1.94

Fair odd

1.88

Edge

3.2%

Stake

0.94u

That ticket matched the final outcome.