Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Lens

The final score was Olympique Lyonnais 0-4 Lens. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Wesley Saïd  put the first mark on the match 20', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Olympique Lyonnais led Corners 20-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Lyonnais also shaded Possession 55%-45%.

Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Lyonnais the likeliest result at 39.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Lyonnais at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (65.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Sbo. The market was offering 1.70 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Olympique Lyonnais

39.6%

Miss

Market result

Olympique Lyonnais

65.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

65.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

Lens

20

8

Possession

Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

Lens

55%

45%

Total shots

Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

Lens

16

14

Model edge

1

Sbo

Market odd

1.70

Fair odd

1.66

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.16u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.