Postmatch editorial
Nottingham Forest turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham Hotspur. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Ibrahim Sangaré scored 79' for Nottingham Forest.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nottingham Forest led Shots on target 6-1. Nottingham Forest also shaded Total shots 15-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Nottingham Forest the likeliest result at 45.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nottingham Forest at 37.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nottingham Forest
45.6%
Market result
Nottingham Forest
37.9%
BTTS
Yes
57.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
6
1
Total shots
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
15
6
Possession
Tottenham HotspurNottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
48%
52%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.